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-- -- astro-sharp.com amateur astronomy by ian sharp about me image gallery my old website climate change for dummies #4: how we know for sure that we are responsible for warming the earth climate change , uncategorized comments off on climate change for dummies #4: how we know for sure that we are responsible for warming the earth may 08 2016 in the first three previous parts of this series, i’ve been slowly laying out and building up the evidence. part 1 described how we are certain that co 2 levels are rising, part 2 explained how we are certain that we are responsible for that. part 3 laid out the facts that tell us for sure that the earth has been warming up in an unusual manner in recent times, and in this article i will bring it all together and present the evidence that makes us certain that human activities are the cause of this recent warming. just to be pedantic i have fully defined what i mean by ‘recent’ and ‘unusual’ in part 3 – but you knew that because you’ve already read every word! the first thing we need to understand is, what are the various factors that can cause the climate to change? climate forcings climate forcings are different factors that affect the earth’s climate. these “forcings” drive or “force” the climate system to change. the forcings can be both natural and man-made, and the natural kind can also be split into external or internal forcings. natural external forcings consist of changes in the amount of radiation that we receive from the sun. these can be from changes in the earth’s orbital parameters, or from the variability of the sun’s own output. natural internal forcings comprise all those changes that occur within the earth’s system itself, in particular volcanic activity, fluctuations in ocean circulations and large-scale changes in the marine and terrestrial biosphere or in the cryosphere . some of these natural forcings cause warming and others cause the planet to cool. if the sun becomes more active, for example, and pours out more electromagnetic radiation, then this would warm the planet, whereas a large increase in volcanic activity causes more particles or aerosols in the atmosphere and this generally has a cooling effect. the point is, to be able to account for the measured global warming, we must account for all of the warming and cooling effects of these forcings and add them all up; only then will we get a complete picture. the problem is when this is done with all of the natural forcings there is just no way to account for the measurements that show the recent global warming. in fact, the answer is not even close to reality. only when we look at the unnatural, man-made forcings do things start to agree with our observations and measurements. additionally, when we only include man-made forcings in the models the answer is also wrong – at some periods it comes out a bit too warm. it seems that the total of the natural forcings on their own is responsible for some periods of slight recent cooling, and when added to the man-made effects the results are a near perfect match to our observations. the chart below (from nasa giss) shows many of the forcings. note the very slight effect from changes in ‘solar irradiance’ (the sun!). also note the transient affect of ‘stratospheric aerosols’, which come from volcanoes, and are pretty well random. we are responsible for putting the majority of aerosols into the troposphere from activities such as the burning of tropical forests, coal and oil. to translate these values of ‘effective forcings’ into temperature, climate scientists run them through sophisticated climate models. when this is done we see that the calculations match the observed global temperatures beautifully. see the chart below where we see temperature anomalies against a baseline from 1850-1900 plotted against time . ( hadcrut3 is one of the datasets of global temperatures from the uk met office). notice how far short the blue line, from just the natural forcings, falls from the observed truth. the evidence is devastating. but if you want more, i like this excellent animated chart . just keep clicking on the down arrow at the bottom of the page to get the next frame of the animation. it is fitting that the national treasure that is sir david attenborough is in the news this week as he (and we) celebrate his 90 th birthday. a few years ago, sir david was a bit sceptical about how much human activities are responsible for warming the climate. he made a documentary about it in 2006 called “the truth about climate change”. he paid a visit to the uk’s met office centre in exeter and spoke to the climate scientists there. it was just this very topic that convinced him of the overwhelming evidence. here’s the clip from that programme: i think that’s a fitting way to close this case. share this: facebook twitter email print google posted by admin at 7:04 pm climate change for dummies series climate change comments off on climate change for dummies series apr 26 2016 maybe i shouldn’t have called this series ‘for dummies’, i don’t mean to imply anything by that but it’s done now! i’m posting part 3 of the series today which took longer than i thought. the new article which is the previous blog post to this one is called “ how we know that the earth is warming up ” if you haven’t read the first two blogs, please read them first. i designed the series to build up the evidence in an incremental fashion. the articles are just below in my blog, or you can use the links below: part 1: how do we know that recent increases in co2 levels are man-made? part 2: how do we know that co2 causes the planet to warm up? part 3: how we know that the earth is warming up part 4: how we know for sure that we are responsible for warming the earth i hope you find them informative and clearly written – that’s the goal anyway. share this: facebook twitter email print google posted by admin at 3:21 pm climate change for dummies #3: how we know that the earth is warming up climate change comments off on climate change for dummies #3: how we know that the earth is warming up apr 10 2016 chart from hotwhopper.com you’d think that this was a simple question to answer, and it is really, but there are people who dispute this fact – despite the mountains of evidence we have. in this article, i’m not going to address why the earth is warming, but just establish the fact that it is , and also that it is doing so at an unusually fast rate. firstly, let’s set the time-frame that is concerning us here. we know that the climate of the earth has changed in the past, well before we humans were capable of influencing it. indeed, the scientific study of palaeoclimatology has revealed that climate changes that have occurred in the past have helped us understand that the ‘recent’ warming is unusual. so, what does ‘recent’ mean? in this article ‘recent’ means since about 1850. now that i can use the word ‘recent’ so that we all know what it means, to be able to state that the level of warming that we measure is ‘unusual’ i need to define what ‘unusual’ means. i can hear the groans of dismay from here! however, bear with me because so much is made about how the recent changes can be dismissed as simply ‘natural’, i have to set a baseline of what is natural so that we can agree that the recent warming is ‘unusual’. past global temperatures because we have only been using instruments to physically measure the temperature around the world for a hundred years or so, we need to use other ‘proxy’ methods. these include ice cores, tree rings, coral reefs and lake and ocean sediments amongst others. the data extracted using these proxies can be used to reconstruct various aspects of the climate, including global temperatures before instrumental records became available. the chart in figure 1 below is a recent version of one of the most talked about graphs in the history of science. it has been called the ‘hockey stick’ because the recent rapid upturn in glo

URL analysis for astro-sharp.com

http://www.astro-sharp.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/gh-04.jpg
http://www.astro-sharp.com/wp-content/gallery/sso-apr-2014/m104_apr_2014_rcos_sso_ids_50pc.jpg
http://www.astro-sharp.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/gh-02.jpg
http://www.astro-sharp.com/2016/03/19/man-made-climate-change-false-balance-in-the-press/?share=google-plus-1
http://www.astro-sharp.com/2016/04/26/climate-change-for-dummies-series/?share=google-plus-1
http://www.astro-sharp.com/2014/05/01/recent-deep-sky-images/
http://www.astro-sharp.com/2014/05/01/recent-deep-sky-images/nggallery/slideshow
http://www.astro-sharp.com/2012/09/
http://www.astro-sharp.com/2016/04/04/climate-change-for-dummies-2-how-do-we-know-that-co2-causes-the-planet-to-warm-up/?share=twitter
http://www.astro-sharp.com/2016/04/10/climate-change-for-dummies-3-how-we-know-that-the-earth-is-warming-up/?share=google-plus-1
http://www.astro-sharp.com/2016/03/29/climate-change-for-dummies-1-how-do-we-know-that-recent-increases-in-co2-levels-are-man-made/
http://www.astro-sharp.com/2015/08/18/comet-c2013-us10-catalina-my-2nd-apod/
http://www.astro-sharp.com/2016/03/19/man-made-climate-change-false-balance-in-the-press/
http://www.astro-sharp.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/co2-04.jpg
http://www.astro-sharp.com/2016/03/29/climate-change-for-dummies-1-how-do-we-know-that-recent-increases-in-co2-levels-are-man-made/?share=facebook
news.bbc.co.uk
geekpower.co.uk
bas.ac.uk
bbc.co.uk
metoffice.gov.uk

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Domain Name: ASTRO-SHARP.COM
Registry Domain ID: 108723937_DOMAIN_COM-VRSN
Registrar WHOIS Server: whois.tucows.com
Registrar URL: http://www.tucowsdomains.com
Updated Date: 2016-11-22T10:34:14Z
Creation Date: 2003-12-22T10:28:33Z
Registry Expiry Date: 2017-12-22T10:28:33Z
Registrar: Tucows Domains Inc.
Registrar IANA ID: 69
Registrar Abuse Contact Email:
Registrar Abuse Contact Phone:
Domain Status: clientTransferProhibited https://icann.org/epp#clientTransferProhibited
Domain Status: clientUpdateProhibited https://icann.org/epp#clientUpdateProhibited
Name Server: NS1.LIVEDNS.CO.UK
Name Server: NS2.LIVEDNS.CO.UK
Name Server: NS3.LIVEDNS.CO.UK
DNSSEC: unsigned
URL of the ICANN Whois Inaccuracy Complaint Form: https://www.icann.org/wicf/
>>> Last update of whois database: 2017-08-28T18:24:35Z <<<

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  REGISTRAR Tucows Domains Inc.

SERVERS

  SERVER com.whois-servers.net

  ARGS domain =astro-sharp.com

  PORT 43

  TYPE domain

DOMAIN

  NAME astro-sharp.com

  CHANGED 2016-11-22

  CREATED 2003-12-22

STATUS
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clientUpdateProhibited https://icann.org/epp#clientUpdateProhibited

NSERVER

  NS1.LIVEDNS.CO.UK 213.171.192.250

  NS2.LIVEDNS.CO.UK 213.171.193.250

  NS3.LIVEDNS.CO.UK 213.171.192.254

  REGISTERED yes

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